This is part three of a three-part newsletter.
In one of the most significant Middle East military clashes in recent history, Israel destroyed the lion’s share of Bashar al-Assad’s Syrian army, air force, navy, weapons storehouses, air defenses, chemical warfare warehouses and laboratories. How did this happen? What are the strategic results, and what military and diplomatic blowback is likely in the short-range? Does the Last Days vision of the Hebrew prophets help us to better understand these events?
“Trees that’ve stood for a thousand years suddenly will fall”
Bob Dylan’s 1983 song ‘Man of Peace‘ speaks of a time coming when primeval towers come crashing down to the ground like cedars of Lebanon in a hurricane. On Sunday morning December 8 2024, ‘Operation Arrow of Bashan’ kicked into high gear. ‘Bashan’ is one of the biblical names of the Golan region (see Joshua 20:8). The Israeli Air Force (IAF) initiated massive attacks in Syria, destroying anti-aircraft batteries and the majority of that country’s defensive and offensive weaponry. This stunning operation brings to mind previous military interactions in the region. In each one of these battles, Syria was a virulent enemy of Israel, bent on the destruction of the Jewish state:
The Six Day War surprise IAF attack (‘Operation Focus‘) on Syria and Egypt in June 1967
- In the Six Day War, Israel lost 19 aircraft in the war; Egypt lost 338; Syria lost 61; Jordan lost 29, and Iraq lost 23 aircraft. Most of the 452 Arab aircraft destroyed were on the ground at that time. Approximately 350 IAF sorties were made against Egypt, Syria, Jordan and Iraq. Nearly 195 IAF took part in these attacks. This operation left the IAF in almost complete control of the skies.
The Syrian invasion of Irbid area, Jordan in September 1970
- The Syrian invasion of Jordan happened on Sunday September 20, 1970 – ‘Black September.’ Palestinian terrorists had recently hijacked three foreign commercial airliners and forced them to land in Jordan. The PLO was simultaneously attempting to overthrow the government of Hashemite King Hussein and to set up a terror-ruled Palestinian state allied with the USSR in its place. Syrian troops, disguised as soldiers of the Palestine Liberation Army, then crossed the Jordanian border, joining Palestinian fighters in attacking the Jordanian army. They captured the northern cities of Irbid and Ramtha, barely 25 miles north of Amman.
- Syria was a client state of the Soviet Union, while the U.S. was Russia’s super-power rival. POTUS Nixon and his national security advisor, Henry Kissinger, turned to Israel, asking them to consider intervening militarily, both to save Jordan and to block Syria’s invasion. At King Hussein’s express request, IDF reinforcements were sent to the region where all three countries had a common border, and IAF fighter aircraft took to the skies to communicate a clear message to Syria, which promptly withdrew from Jordan. King Hussein’s forces then drove the PLO out of Jordan, killing 3,400 terrorists in the subsequent clashes. The PLO moved to Lebanon, and their arrival triggered the Lebanese Civil War, where approximately 100,000-150,000 Lebanese died in the fighting. From that point forward, the United States regarded Israel as a strategic ally in the Middle East.
The pre-emptive Syrian attack on Israel on Yom Kippur 1973
- Egypt and Syria carried out a preemptive surprise attack on Israel on October 6 1973 – Yom Kippur on the Jewish calendar. Between 102 to 128 IAF aircraft were lost, and 91 IAF personnel were killed. Neither Egypt nor Syria released official numbers, but the available figures are 235-242 Egyptian aircraft downed, and 135-179 Syrian aircraft taken out. Total Israeli casualties numbered 2,691; Egyptian casualties numbered approximately 13,000; Syrian casualties were approximately 3,500. The cruelty with which Syrian and Egyptian soldiers treated captured IDF soldiers is hard to fathom: In a December 1973 address to the National Assembly, Syrian Defense Minister Mustafa Tlass stated that he had awarded one soldier the Medal of the Republic for killing 28 Israeli prisoners with an axe, decapitating three of them and eating the flesh of one of his victims.
The battle royal between the Syrian Air Force (SAF) and the Israel Air Force (IAF) in August 1982 above Lake Qaraoun, Beqaa Valley, Lebanon
- Operation Peace for Galilee (or the First Lebanon War) was fought between June 5 and September 29 1982. On Thursday evening June 3 1982, Palestinian terrorists attempted to assassinate Israel’s Ambassador to the UK, Shlomo Argov. This event triggered the Lebanese tinderbox, kicking off a major war which has shaped Middle East dynamics, and opened the door for Iranian Shi’ite terror-transplant Hezbollah to find a new home base in Beirut.
- Part of this war involved the Syrian Air Force in the biggest air battle since the Korean War, and one of the biggest since World War II. It was named Operation Mole Cricket 19 (Mivtza ʻArtzav Tsha-Esreh) and it occurred on June 9 1982 above Lake Qaraoun in Lebanon’s Beqaa Valley. A SEAD campaign (suppression of enemy air defense), it involved 96 IAF aircraft (F-15 Eagles, F-16 Falcons, F-4 Phantoms, A-4 and IAF Kfir) attacking 100 SAF MiG-23, MiG 21 and Su-20 fighters. Israeli planning, intelligence and ECM (electronic countermeasures) made short work of the Syrian planes, with 86 shot down in less than two hours, along with 15 SAM anti-aircraft batteries taken out in the first wave. No IAF planes were hit.
- The IAF operation completely wiped out the Syrian military’s combat capability. The IAF had complete control from the air, and the Syrian military had no chance of surviving. The lessons learned from Operation Mole Cricket 19 guide world air forces today, regarding the importance of electronic warfare, modern anti-radar missiles, and the use of drones. Some military experts see this operation as one of the main causes of the end of the Cold War – decisively revealing to the Soviets the technical superiority of Western armies.
The enemy of my enemy
The December 2024 10-day military blitz spearheaded by the chameleon-like Islamist ‘Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham’ (‘Organization for the Liberation of the Levant’; abbreviated HTS) – a jihadi terror group which has its roots in al Qa’eda, the Islamic State, and ‘al Nusra Front’/’Jabhat al-Nusra’ (‘Support Front for the Conquest’) – has surprised many in the world. As the army of bearded jihadis swarmed across Syria, cities fell one after the other until the pearl, Damascus, dropped into their lap like an over-ripe fig. One of the side-effects of this ‘green wave’ was that the majority of Assad’s faithful – including the lion’s share of the Syrian Army – fled their positions, abandoning tanks, fighter jets, anti-aircraft batteries, warehouse crammed with missiles, rockets, artillery, chemical warfare, etc., and ran for the hills.
Two ramifications of this mass military exodus: one, a huge amount of ‘kit,’ weapons of war, were now lying unguarded across the whole of Syria, ripe for the taking. And two, no one was minding the store: whereas Syria has had one of the thickest AA (anti-aircraft) battery systems in the world (making life difficult for IAF pilots), now the skies were unguarded. IAF military strategists watched the opportunity begin to open up, and feverishly developed plans to obliterate Syrian AA batteries as first priority. That began on Sunday morning December 8 2024 when the first of over 500 sorties were launched by the IAF, firing over 1,800 weapons (bombs, rockets and missiles). A senior Israeli security source described it as the “largest air operation carried out by its air force in its history.”
The IAF first conducted over 500 strikes in 48 hours, 350 of which targeted anti-aircraft batteries, military airfields (Mezzeh-Damascus, Qamishli, Suwayda region, Homs, Tartus, and Palmyra), weapons production sites, 27 fighter jets, 24 attack helicopters, 12 cruise missile launchers and drones. Then it focused on weapons storage facilities in Nawa and Daraa, chemical weapons stockpiles (mustard gas and VX gas) and production centers in Barzeh, 44 radar and electronic warfare batteries, Russian missile vehicles, 400 Russian Scud and Iranian Raad missiles and their launchers. In these strikes between 70 and 80% of Syria’s strategic weapons were destroyed. Syrian intelligence and customs HQs in Damascus were also destroyed. Combined attacks by IAF and the Israeli Navy destroyed the entire Syrian naval fleet (15 in total) in Latakia and adjoining Minet el-Beida Bay. Between 85-90% of Syria’s AA missiles and systems were destroyed, including the SA-22 Pantsir and SA-17 Buk systems. All Sukhoi Su-22 and Su-24 fighter jets were obliterated. 100% of Syria’s explosive drones were destroyed.
The large Syrian army, with hundreds of thousands of soldiers and officers deployed throughout the country, barely resisted the invaders, withdrawing as the rebels advanced, and then stripping off their uniforms. Some soldiers fled to their homes, other to Shi’ite areas of Lebanon or Iraq. Syria was now awash with unguarded weaponry, as was the case in post-Saddam Hussein’s Iraq and in post-Muammar Gaddafi’s Libya. Top quality Russian and Iranian equipment, including laboratories for the development and manufacture of chemical weapons (the CERS Center) – these were now a clear and present danger to Syria’s neighbor to the south, Israel. This link exposes something of the width and breadth of the various chemical weapons sites hit by the IAF in the past few days.
Falling into the wrong hands
In the past few days the IDF seized strategic positions in the Golan Heights and on the highest peak of Mount Hermon which had been abandoned by Syrian troops. ‘Operation Bashan Arrow’ intends to create a sterile defense zone by neutralizing potential threats from jihadi threats in Syria. Israel’s Minister of Diaspora and Combating Antisemitism Amichai Chikli said in a statement that “the bottom line is that most of Syria is now under the control of affiliates of al-Qaeda and Daesh.”
On Tuesday, 10 December 2024 Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoke at the Kirya (Israel’s Pentagon) in Tel Aviv: “We have no intention of interfering in Syria’s internal affairs; however, we do intend to do what is necessary for our security. As such, I approved the Air Force bombing of strategic military capabilities left by the Syrian military so that they will not fall into the hands of the jihadists. This is similar to what the British Air Force did when it bombed the fleet of the Vichy regime [in WWII], which was cooperating with the Nazis, so that it would not fall into the Nazis’ hands. We want to have relations with the new regime in Syria but if this regime allows Iran to re-establish itself in Syria, or allows the transfer of Iranian weapons, or weapons of any kind, to Hezbollah, or attacks us – we will respond forcefully and we will exact a heavy price. What happened to the previous regime will also happen to this one.”
Flight into danger
Lebanese Hezbollah has been severely weakened and their military might has been deeply degraded. Syrian Assad’s army is scattered to the winds, and their formidable anti-aircraft wall of fire has been obliterated. The flight path from Israel to Iran is wide open. Only Iraq, with a much less developed air defense system, lies in between. For a long time the U.S. has been bolstering the Islamic Republic of Iran and their Revolutionary Guards Corps – including a significant financial river of support aimed their way. POTUS Obama blocked Israel’s attempts to destroy or even downgrade the nuclear bomb project so previous to Iran’s imams.
For those who remember recent history (August 2013), POTUS Obama had set some red lines for President Assad regarding the production, buildup and use of chemical weapons – which red lines Syria blithely ignored, and Obama did not react. Now, in December 2024, in a 48-hour period the IAF bombed Assad’s chemical warfare storehouses and labs to smithereens. Could it be that Israel will have the resolve and the courage to remove the Shi’ite nuclear threat from all the nations in the Middle East in short order? There are moves in the incoming U.S. administration to consider new strategies to bring a breakthrough to the current nuclear logjam in the West.
How shall we then pray?
- Pray for revelation and courage to be given to Israel’s leaders in political, intelligence and military spheres – to understand and counteract strategies against Israel, the apple of God’s eye (Zechariah 2:8) – as Islamic State/al Qa’eda armies gather at our borders.
- Pray that enemy strategies against the Jewish people and their state, against Middle East Christians and other minorities – will be confounded, and that a great harvest would take place in all of these areas!
- Pray for the protection of Israeli and Jewish people from the assaults of jihadi terror organizations and Western fellow-travelers
- Pray for the return of the Jewish people to both the Land and the Messiah of Israel
- Pray for the physical rescue of the approximately 44 to 50 living Israeli hostages (including babies) kidnapped by Hamas, Islamic Jihad and PFLP/PLO. At this moment some of these hostages are being tortured, raped and starved (this based on testimonies of recently released hostages). Sadly, over 100 of all Israeli hostages are dead; Hamas is holding on to their corpses as cold storage bargaining chips
- Pray for the raising up of Ezekiel’s prophetic Jewish army throughout the earth
Your prayers and support hold up our arms and are the very practical enablement of God to us in the work He has called us to do.
In Messiah Yeshua,
Avner Boskey
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