A 1978 speech in the British House of Lords quotes an informal chat between the French Ambassador Ambassador at Paris’ Vietnam peace talks (1972-73) and the Chinese representative (most probably Premier Zhou Enlai). The French Ambassador said: “Tell me your Excellency, what has been the effect of the French Revolution on the development of your country?” After a brief pause, the Chinese gentleman said: “It is too early yet to say.” It seems that sometimes it takes time to fully comprehend events.
Two years have passed since the murderous terror attack by jihadi Hamas forces against Israeli families and farms. Though the full extent of what transpired may not yet be completely understood – some information, of course, is still subject to censorship – there is enough OSINT (open-source intelligence) available to piece together a fairly comprehensive appraisal of what went on that day. Immediate and general contexts are available from media reportage; jihadi combat strategies and Islamist perspectives are available from the Hamas Charter and published Israeli intelligence findings; SIGINT (signals intelligence) information from American sources (NSA and CIA) and from Israeli sources (AMAN [Agaf Ha-Modi’in] and its Unit 8200) – some of these have been leaked to media outlets – all these help in filling in many of the blanks.
- “For by cunning stratagems you will wage war” (Proverbs 24:6)
- “Prepare plans by consultation, and make war by cunning stratagems.” (Proverbs 20:18)
- “Where there is no cunning stratagem, the people fall” (Proverbs 11:14)
- “The heart of man plans his way, but YHVH establishes his steps” (Proverbs 16:9)
Context is everything
The State of Israel was birthed in 1948 into a matrix of constant pressure. Since then, superpowers have been bullying, aggressively focusing on issues like the dividing of Jerusalem; the handing over Judea and Samaria (also known as ‘the West Bank’) to Islamic dictatorships or jihadi terror groups; and pressuring Israel to consent to the establishment of an enemy state in Gaza and Ramallah (interchangeably run either by Hamas or by the PLO/PA). These goals are still observable principles guiding the US State Department.
Operating on these foundations, the US has trained, supported and encouraged the PLO terror group and, in recent times, has also been an advocate for Hamas’ continued rule in Gaza. The America-sponsored ‘peace accords’ (Camp David, Oslo) are pushing for a Palestinian terror state. Over the past fifteen years there has also been a collateral push to remove Israeli PM Netanyahu from office. These agreements (including the Abraham Accords and the Qatar-funded Gaza peace deal spearheaded by POTUS Trump) are all fated to collapse if Israel ‘spoils the party’ by insisting to hold onto Judea, Samaria, Jerusalem – lands promised by the God of Jacob to His people Israel by irrevocable covenant. The above anti-Abrahamic agendas should be kept in mind as current events unfold.
Hamas dress-rehearsals between 2016 and 2023
Hamas’ jihadi terror invasion of Israel on October 7, 2023 involved much planning. Here is a brief layout of what was involved.
On Wednesday April 19, 2017 Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu presented to the Knesset State Control Committee that AMAN (Israel’s Military Intelligence Directorate) had come across evidence that Hamas was planning a multi-pronged invasion of Israel – along the lines of the terrorist group’s ‘Walls of Jericho’ battle plan (which was later intercepted in April 2022).
On November 27, 2023, the BBC aired video confirmation and investigative reporting of Hamas’ preparations for the October 7 attack:
- In 2018 Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) set up a structure to coordinate Gaza’s armed factions under a central command. On December 29 2020, Hamas’s overall leader Ismail Haniyeh declared the first of four drills codenamed ‘Strong Pillar’ a “strong message and a sign of unity” between Gaza’s various armed factions. This was the first of four joint drills held over three years, each of which was documented in polished videos posted on public social media channels. Ten Palestinian factions participated in a war games-style exercise overseen by a ‘joint operation room.’ These included PIJ, Mujahidin Brigades, al-Nasser Salah al-Din Brigades, Abu Ali Mustafa Brigades, al-Aqsa Martyr’s Brigades, and Omar al-Qasim Forces.
- The second Strong Pillar drill was held almost exactly one year later on December 26, 2021. Ayman Nofal, a commander in the Izzedine al-Qassam Brigades – the official name for Hamas’ armed wing – said the aim of the exercise on 26 December 2021 was to “affirm the unity of the resistance factions” and “tell the enemy that the walls and engineering measures on the borders of Gaza will not protect them.” The joint military maneuvers were designed to “simulate the liberation of settlements [i.e. kibbutzim] near Gaza.”
- In May 2022 Hamas TV aired a drama series featuring footage from the Strong Pillar drills. Included were simulated attacks on Israeli communications, and the targeting of kibbutzim and IDF bases – including the Re’im base where the IDF Gaza Division is located. Later in 2022 Hamas aired a televised ceremony in which Yahya Sinwar (Hamas’ head) handed out awards to the show’s producers, declaring: “This series is an inseparable part of what we are preparing – the great preparations we are making with our brothers in the Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades [i.e., Hamas’s military wing]. They are absolutely planning for the liberation and return.”
- The third Strong Pillar drill was carried out on December 28, 2022. Videos were released of fighters clearing buildings and overrunning tanks on a replica of a military base. This exercise took place 2.6 km (1.6 miles) away from the main Erez crossing into Israel
- Fourteen training sites at nine different locations across Gaza were located using satellite intelligence. One site was less than 1.6 km (1 mile) from the United Nations’ aid agency distribution center, visible on an official video published by the UN in December 2022.
- On September 12, 2023 the fourth Strong Pillar drill took place. Hamas jihadi commandos were filmed riding in white Toyota pickup trucks, raiding mock Israeli communities, going room to room killing people, blowing their way through gates painted yellow like those in border kibbutzim, and taking civilians and soldiers hostage.
The ‘Walls of Jericho’ battle-plan
In October 2021, Hamas’s attack plan against Israel was issued. It was obtained by Israeli Military Intelligence (AMAN)’s SIGINT UNIT 8200 in April 2022, translated from Arabic, and code-named ‘Jericho Wall.’ This plan laid out in painstaking detail the exact actions of Hamas on October 7, 2023.
This report was then passed on to and seen by the following army top brass: IDF AMAN chief Maj. Gen. Aharon Haliva, UNIT 8200 commander Brig. Gen. Yossi Sariel; IDF Gaza Division commander Brig. Gen. Avi Rosenfeld; IDF Southern Command chief Maj. Gen. Eliezer Toledano.
However, the report was not shared with the following top brass: IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi; IDF Deputy COS Maj. Gen. Amir Baram; Israel Air Force chief Maj. Gen. Tomer Bar; senior IDF operations officers Maj. Gen. Oded Basiuk and Brig. Gen. Shlomi Binder. It was also not shared with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, or the Knesset’s Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee.
Sinwar’s secret blood-drenched instructions
On August 24, 2024 a computer was found in an underground Hamas complex in Rafah, Gaza Strip, where Yahya Sinwar (leader and chairman of Hamas) had been hiding out from the IDF.
A scanned document of Sinwar’s handwritten order-of-battle was located on a computer unconnected to any other network. This document detailed his instructions to Hamas, written before October 7, 2023. Sinwar laid out the jihadi group’s deceptions in the weeks before the invasion; he described how the invasion would be prosecuted, based on the understanding that the Israeli defense measures along the border would not be able to stop the waves of attacking terrorists. Sinwar wrote that the window of opportunity for the success of the attack was between six and ten hours, during which Hamas forces had to firmly establish facts on the ground.
He then declared what he was looking for in equipping his terrorists with GoPro body video cameras:
- “Explosive images: Images must be released which will trigger a surge of euphoria, frenzy, and momentum among our people, especially among the residents of the West Bank, the ‘internal’ [Israeli Arabs], Jerusalem, and our entire Islamic nation. This is meant to spur them to respond to the calls to rise up and revolt, while simultaneously sowing fear and terror among the enemy. It must be emphasized to the unit commanders that these things are to be carried out deliberately. That is, to document and broadcast the images as quickly as possible: stepping on the heads of soldiers, point-blank shootings, slaughtering people with knives, blowing up tanks, prisoners kneeling with their hands on their heads, and the like.”
And so it was done: a Hamas commander from Gaza City (Abu al-Baraa) instructed his operatives in the area of Kibbutz Sa’ad, (according to a message intercepted by Unit 8200): “Document the scenes of horror, now, and broadcast them across TV channels for the whole world to see. Slaughter them. End the children of Israel!”
Another routine day at the office
IDF tatzpitaniyot (tower observers adept at VISINT or visual intelligence) were sending very concerning reports for nearly three years (since the first Strong Pillar drill in 2020) to their IDF commanders about worrying signs indicating Hamas preparations for a full-bore invasion of Israel. They were nearly totally ignored and told to stop such reporting.
One such example was Noa Melman, a tatzpitanit who finished her mandatory IDF service in January 2023. In a post-army interview with Israel’s Channel 12, she recounted the many indications of what was to come, including a mock border fence set up by Hamas in order for the terrorists to practice, again and again, blowing up the border and crossing over to the other side. She explained: “Our commanders told us to report what we saw, but everyone treated it like it was normal, like it was routine.”
Death in the kibbutz, at any cost
On July 6, 2023, a female Non-Commissioned Officer and Israeli intelligence analyst in Unit 8200’s Gaza Division emailed a presentation titled ‘Death in the kibbutz, at any cost.’ The PowerPoint charted out Hamas’ mass invasion plan, describing in detail a May 2023 Hamas training session that began in the early-morning hours and lasted late into the evening. The training included jeeps and motorcycles, and a scenario of shooting down an aircraft. In a response sent six days after the warning, on July 12, 2023, an unnamed IDF commander acknowledged the analyst’s good work but decided that Hamas’ training session was for show, an ‘imaginary scenario’ and not a concrete battle plan.
The Unit 8200 analyst responded with a stark warning: “This is a plan designed to start a war.” One of her male colleagues backed her up on the same email thread: “I emphasize that we completely and emphatically disagree with the assumption that this is an imaginary scenario.” According to the female analyst, Hamas militants were chanting, ‘Prepare to kill the Jewish pigs’ and ‘Prepare to go in and decapitate.’ She added: ‘They are training, with large forces, for a big event… this is preparation for the real thing.’ She noted that the Hamas commandos were continually quoting from the Quran (Surah Al-Ma’idah; Surah 5; Ayat 21) that begins with the words: “My people! Enter the holy land which Allah has ordained for you. And do not turn back, for then you will turn about losers!” That was when the non-religious Israeli analyst realized that, for Hamas, this was not a culture clash, a clash over territory or a desire to better their economic status, but rather an Islamist rallying cry to war – she understood belated that what was coming down the pike was actually religious war, an Islamist jihad, one which would involve all the murder and rapine described in Quranic jihadi passages.
Hiding in plain sight
On August 25, 2023, Hamas leader Saleh Arouri stated on Hezbollah’s Al-Mayadeen channel: “We are preparing for a comprehensive war and are discussing this in closed chambers with all the elements and components [i.e., of the jihadi ‘resistance’ axis] that are connected to this war.” He added that the resistance axis has “the presence, the motivation and the desire for a regional war to occur, and has an interest in this.”
The chief watchmen were sleeping
On September 19, 2023, IDF Intelligence Unit 8200’s Gaza Division distributed the document ‘Detailed End-to-End Raid Training’ to senior intelligence officials, at least those within the Gaza Division. It described the training Hamas units had been undergoing – practicing raids, kidnapping, and holding hostages in Gaza. The terrorist forces were now divided into four groups; each group trained on a simulated outpost. Clear plans showed that Hamas was planning to take hostages en masse. The document estimated the target number of hostages at 200-250. During the actual October 7 attack, 251 hostages were taken, while over 1,200 others were killed, mostly civilians. The document was ignored. The decision-makers in the IDF, both in military and intelligence, believed that Hamas had made a philosophical decision not to go to war; that Hamas was unable to carry out such an operation; and that it was actually Hamas which was merely defending itself against a prospective Israeli invasion of Gaza. Hamas’ deception tactics successfully blinded the eyes of the watchmen. It had conducted a years-long campaign to fool Israel into thinking the jihadi armies could be placated with economic incentives in order to maintain relative calm.
Not listening to the devil’s advocate
As a result of the near-bone-crushing defeat of the IDF in the 1973 Yom Kippur War, AMAN established a unit called ‘Ipcha Mistabra’ – the Devil’s Advocate Unit. Their job was to rigorously challenge the politically correct expectations of Army Intelligence on emergency issues.
The head of that unit wrote in late September to all senior decision-makers in both the IDF and in the political echelon, challenging the widespread assessment that Hamas was deterred. The officer continued that he twice ‘presented this thesis’ in writing, on September 21 and 26, 2023 and that these two notes ‘were widely distributed among all decision-makers in the military and the political echelon.’ He also set out the thesis in a speech at an annual Intelligence Branch strategic assessment session on September 26, 2023 and again, on September 27, 2023, at the weekly debate before the head of military intelligence. His warnings were ignored by the head of AMAN, Maj. Gen. Aharon Haliva.
When the watchmen don’t listen to the watchwoman’s warning
Another Non-Commissioned Officer (code-named ‘Vav’) in Unit 8200, sent an email sent to the Gaza Division’s AMAN intelligence officers and others unnamed, a day or two after the Unit 8200 dossier ‘Detailed End-to-End Raid Training’ (sent on September 29, 2023).
‘Vav’ warned that, due to the apparent imminence of whatever Hamas was planning, Israel’s intelligence would likely not have enough time to ‘prevent the incident’ altogether. Instead, ‘Vav’ suggested that relevant parties begin “formulating plans for dealing with the incident, should it actually happen, in order to reduce the damage . . . The other side is determined in its intentions to carry out its plan. If the plan is implemented, painful and difficult fighting is expected.” ‘Vav’ noted that the exercises Hamas had been observed carrying out were “very reminiscent” of the plan … to destroy the Gaza Division’s defense system [i.e., ‘the ‘Jericho Wall’]. It is no longer a plan only on paper.”
She concluded her dire warning by paraphrasing Ezekiel 33:6:
- “But if the watchman sees the sword coming and does not blow the shofar and the people are not warned, and a sword comes and takes a person from them, he is taken away for his wrongdoing; but I will require his blood from the watchman’s hand”
‘Vav’ stated in conclusion: “This email constitutes a blowing of the shofar, because the sword is coming – the hour is ripe to warn the nation!’ The email was dismissed by the Gaza Division’s top intelligence officers. On July 5, 2024 it was reported that “tempers are fraying” in the AMAN Directorate because the officers who had failed to heed ‘Vav’s warning had not been fired.
An American postscript
Two US intelligence warning were also passed on to Israel, and a third was circulated to those paying attention. On September 28, 2023 an NSA SIGINT update warned, based on multiple streams of intelligence, that the terror group Hamas was poised to escalate rocket-attacks across the border. On October 5, 2023, a CIA wire warned in general terms of the increasing possibility of terrorist violence by Hamas. On October 6, 2023 US officials began to circulate reporting from Israel indicating unusual activity by Hamas – indications that an attack was imminent.
I don’t see, therefore I don’t believe
The IDF’s Gaza Division had never prepared for a situation where more than several dozens Hamas terrorists would possibly attack and breach the border. In the end, over 6,000 Hamas jihadis (and a few thousand other pro-jihadi Gazans getting in on the pogrom) stormed into southern Israel on October 7.
Various commanders in Unit 8200 have come under fire for dismissing and ridiculing lower-level mostly female officers who accurately conveyed that Hamas was plotting a large-scale attack. Other AMAN officers no longer felt comfortable relying on HUMINT – traditional intelligence-gathering methods – and preferred to put all their eggs in the basket of SIGINT and its technological innovations.
A high-ranking officer within the IDF’s Intelligence Corps reduced Unit 8200’s manpower in 2021 after concluding that their intelligence-gathering methods would not help detect a threat from Gaza in real-time. “An alert in the Gaza arena will not come from the classic sources,” the officer was quoted saying. This decision significantly downgraded the unit’s operational activities and effectiveness in the Gaza border region. Part of this decision involved ceasing SIGINT operations entirely overnight and on weekends
- In our next newsletter, the timeline of the October 7 events will be presented, as well as the contexts surrounding those events. The third newsletter will deal with the mostly concealed role of an Israeli spy, his Israeli handlers, how his involvement affected the outcome of the Israel-Hamas war in a major way, and the highly relevant political background here. The fourth newsletter will draw conclusions from the events, and offer prayer guidelines.
How shall we then pray?
- Pray for discernment, clarity of thought and revelation be given to those standing with and praying for Israel and the Jewish people
- Pray for the raising up of Ezekiel’s prophetic Jewish army throughout the earth!
Your prayers and support hold up our arms and are the very practical enablement of God to us in the work He has called us to do.
In Messiah Yeshua,
Avner Boskey
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